Putting aside the zealots and haters, the public opinion of Lindy Ruff and Darcy Regier tends to swing back and forth to align with the favorability of the team. We group our opinion of them with our opinion of the team. We’re incapable of analyzing those two individuals objectively. There’s enough of a sample size for people to offer generalizations, backed with an endless catalog of examples, to attack or support Ruff or Regier or both. Grand, sweeping evaluations are always subjective in sports and, despite their guided nature, it’s appropriate to qualify opinions on Ruff or Regier as such.
The current favorability of the Sabres is hardly a matter of great subjectivity. By anyone’s standards, they are having a largely problematic season. So, of course, Ruff and Regier have been heavily criticized. I’m not here to dissuade anyone, only to point out the symmetry. We no longer allow the reputations of Ruff and Regier to exist autonomously, apart from the team, as we once did and presently do with individual players.
I want to be try and be as fair as possible with how I measure the Sabres. When attempting to understand and contextualize a team’s win/loss record, the first step I’m inclined to take involves designating eras. An oft-used benchmark in hockey circles is the 2004-2005 NHL lockout. Other eras commonly begin and end with ownership/executive/coaching changes and major player addition/subtractions. I think the Sabres, for example, are in the defining years of the Ryan Miller era and the beginning years of the Pegula era.
The Miller era has had its ups and down. In four years, the Sabres have made the playoffs twice but failed to advance beyond the first-round in each occasion. Heading into its fifth year, Regier chose to replace Connolly, Butler, and Montador with Leino, Regehr, and Ehrhoff — a sizeable investment in the short term future of the team. Regier’s motivations were affected by Pegula’s presence, no doubt, but it would be a mistake to label the previous summer as anything but an endorsement of the players already under contract. This is year five of an era, and there needs to be some results suggestive of progress.
The endorsement is arguably the most obvious problem with Regier at the moment. The Sabres won a division title in 2010, a reason to hope the team had finally taken a step forward, but the following fall the team put together an abysmal first-half of the regular season. At the very least, that period in the season was a sign of the group’s limitations.
Now here we are again, one year later, and the Sabres sit 4th in their division and 11th in their conference. Regier’s lack of foresight is a major factor in the current product. He never sold high on any one of his players. The people who are expecting Regier to make a trade now are minimizing the larger point which is that a significant trade should have already been executed. This is the wrong time. The ideal candidates to move off the team have extremely low market value.
Again, the Miller era has had its ups and downs. It has been surprising to watch the production from individual players oscillate from high to low. It’s primarily been the stars too — Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, Tyler Myers, Ryan Miller, and formerly Tim Connolly. Each one of those players had long stretches of high production that make everyone wonder if this player can finally be relied upon. The letdown has historically proven itself inevitable under Lindy Ruff. Why?
I couldn’t even guess at the cause. I’m an outsider. I only know this season has been particularly troubling to watch. The secondary scoring, the depth on defense, the back-up goaltending — never has any of it been better in the Ryan Miller era. If the surrounding parts have never been better, why are key players still disappearing for long-stretches?
A lot of the questions and points of frustration with the Sabres can be interpreted and blamed in multiple fashions. The larger take-away is the urgency that Ruff and Regier are both functioning within now. Their job security is a source of public debate. Internally, there’s support for Ruff and Regier but to what point? This was supposed to be a season in which the Sabres show significant progress — the culmination of four years growing and developing a core. It’s tough to justify a continuation of this poor to middling product. What are they moving towards? Is there a foundation in place from which a winner can be built?
It’s time to consider some difficult questions but it’s too soon to expect serious answers.
What kind of message do people expect to hear from Pegula and Black in January? With an entire half-season remaining, it makes total sense for them to emphasize the injuries. The season is still salvageable. The team should know that the owner and president believe in a healthy version of this roster. It almost goes without saying — calling attention to the injuries as proof of the team’s misfortune will not hold up if the Sabres miss the playoffs. But we’re not at that point yet.
Their message isn’t something to agree or disagree with; it’s purpose is to enable the team to play to its potential. It’s not the time for reevaluation; that comes later. For now, throw away all the plans and expectations. Start over. This time the urgency is real. The pressure is real. It’s time for desperate hockey. Play desperate, or don’t. Either or Pegula and Black are wise to give the team a chance to make that decision themselves.
Great content and well written to boot. Makes too much sense.